Four Scenarios Ahead of Yemen’s Ansarullah in Future

Written by  Published by:Shiite News
Published in Yemen
Tuesday, 05 July 2016


Following Yemen’s 2011 political developments and subsequent Saudi-led Arab military coalition's air campaign in Yemen, the Ansarullah movement, as a key force leading the resistance camp of Yemen, has turned into a significant and influential player in the county's political and security developments.

There are a lot of analyses on the resistant movement, significantly bringing in spotlight its place among the Yemenis and the level of influentiality of Ansarullah in the future of political status of Yemen.

The case is important because after power vacuum caused by domestic crisis following 2011 events, the Ansarullah movement rose in the country as a key political and military force, to a large extent impossible to be removed from Yemen’s political and administrative scene.

In this situation, while the pro-Ansarullah analysts touch upon the role and capabilities of the resistant group and insist that it needs to move towards forming a government and holding the administration in Yemen, the critics of the idea argue that Ansarullah is not well-equipped with an adequate experience to govern the country, and so it must keep activity as a sociopolitical movement in the country.

Having these two ideas as well as the prospective developments of Yemen in mind, Ansarullah finds itself in front of a couple of choices, to be shed light on within four scenarios as follows:

Moving towards forming a nation-state

The first scenario ahead of the Yemeni movement is to plan for forming a government in the country. One of the evidences showing that Ansarullah took a step towards this aim is the issuing of the “constitution statement” in February 2013. According to the statement, Supreme Revolutionary Committee of Yemen was formed, its presidency was announced, and the country’s parliament was dissolved. In line with this scenario Ansarullah movement has to move in its way to form an interim administrative authority and hold presidential and parliamentary elections. But a slew of hurdles at home and internationally impede full implementation of the scenario.

Joining the upcoming government

The second scenario sees Ansarullah part of a government formed in Yemen in the future. It could hold some of the ministries as part of any agreement reached between the Yemeni sides, and undertake some executive, consultative and administrative duties. According to the scenario, the movement could be in charge of some of administrative affairs. It could administrate ministry of technical service, ministry of industry, or foreign and interior ministries. Perhaps this is a likely choice for Ansarullah in the future Yemen. It appears that the movement is capable of having such a share in the government in any future power-sharing process, as earlier it was given five ministries but it declined to accept the offer and gave its share to the Southern Movement.

But in the way of realization of such a scenario the significant point is that any group which holds the future Yemeni government needs to have backing of other countries, otherwise, it appears to be almost impossible to govern. It is infeasible to recollect the country without support from the others while it is in such chaotic conditions. So, accepting administrative duties has its own consequences for Ansarullah.

Declining to participate in power and government

The third scenario assumes that Ansarullah declines to hold any administrative responsibility but be present as a decisive, strong, and influential consultative power in the major power channels of Yemen. This role was already played by the movement through appointing two advisors to the now-resigned Yemeni President Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi. Pursuing this scenario upgraded place of Ansarullah to become active in consultation and influential in the decision making process in Yemen. However, it doesn't appear that this scenario works for the movement in the medium or long term.

Establishment of a fully-Shiite region in north

The last scenario is that in addition to being part of the administration in the country, Ansarullah founds its partially autonomous region in north of the country which is a strategic part of Yemen. Gaining power through holding its own autonomous region brings Ansarullah advantages. But the most significant impediment is opposition of some countries, including the neighboring Saudi Arabia. Although it is ideal for Ansarullah to see realization of an autonomous Shiite region while the movement doesn't take part in the government or accept any administrative duties, it is important to find ways to adopt this model in the country in a way that it would not run counter to the Saudi Arabian interests.

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